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Abstract
Utilizando el modelo PRECIS se efectuó la simulación del clima de una región localizada en los Andes colombianos, para explorar el impacto del cambio en el uso del suelo en el clima regional. El modelo reproduce satisfactoriamente la distribución espacial y el ciclo anual regional de la precipitación anual y de la temperatura media anual del aire, aunque sobreestima sus valores mensuales. Para los lugares en donde hay disponibles datos de observaciones que permitieron la comparación, PRECIS también reprodujo satisfactoriamente la variabilidad interanual de la temperatura media anual del aire y de la precipitación anual. Las diferencias entre lo observado y lo simulado ajustaron mediante un simple coeficiente obtenido de la relación observado/simulado.
Con una intervención al modelo en la que se modifica el uso del suelo utilizando en la primera simulación por el real observado en la región en el año 1985, se realizó una nueva prueba. La comparación permitió establecer que hubo poco cambio sobre los ambientes naturales y un notorio aumento de la precipitación cuando se cambia el uso del suelo de “pastos y árboles” a “bosques tropicales de hoja ancha” y de “pastos y árboles” a “tierras con cultivos arables”.
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