Resumen
La hidrología de Colombia está fuertemente afectada por ambas fases del ENSO, un fenómeno que exhibe rasgos de caos determinístico de baja dimensionalidad. Se examina el posible comportamiento caótico de la hidro-climatología de Colombia. Para ello, se presentan algunas ideas de la cuantificación de caos usando series temporales y se aplican a series hidrológicas extensas de Colombia, consistentes en registros de precipitación mensual de Bogotá entre 1866 y 1992 y de Medellín entre 1908 y 1995, así como a la serie de caudales medios mensuales del río Magdalena en Puerto Berrío. Se estiman el Espectro de Potencias, la dimensión de HaussdorfBesikovich (fractal), la dimensión de escalamiento entre distancias en los atractores, y el mayor exponente de Lyapunov de las series temporales.Se estudia la dinámica que controÍa el comportamiento de la precipitación y los caudales, con el ánimo de investigar la existencia de componentes determinísticas de baja dimensionalidad, y el posible comportamiento caótico. Se discuten algunas ideas acerca de la predicción hidrológica en el contexto de sistemas dinámicos no lineales en régimen de caos.
Palabras clave
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