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Abstract
The analysis of the academic trajectory is of the utmost importance for Scholar Program administrators, since it allows them to identify areas of opportunity for the Academic Program improvement. In this paper, we analyzed academic trajectory of a group students enrolled at a University Mathematics Program. To that aim, we utilize a stochastic process for modeling the academic trajectory. The model is defined in terms of a progressive Markov chain with two absorbing states. The inferential theory presented in this paper deals with the definition of a random sample for a Markov chain, the construction of the likelihood function and the estimation of the Markov chain parameters. Using these estimates and delta method, confidence intervals are calculated for the mean absorption time, the mean exit time of a state and the absorption probability into a state, these quantities correspond to expected time a student either concludes or drops out of the Program; the expected sojourn time in academic term and the probability a student either concludes or drops out of the Program, respectively.
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References
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