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Contrary to the long-held view that the uplift of the Andes spurred biotic diversification by causing vicariance across multiple lineages with formerly continuous distributions, recent work suggests that dispersal across the Andes occurring after major uplift episodes was a major driver of speciation in Neotropical birds, with the ability of lineages to persist and disperse in the landscape being strong predictors of speciation. However, where and when dispersal events across the Andes occurred is unknown, and the role of climatic fluctuations and associated shifts in vegetation in promoting cross-Andes dispersal at different moments remains to be studied. We used models of species potential distributions based on contemporary and historical climatic data to examine scenarios of cross-Andes dispersal by 41 species of Neotropical lowland birds with varying habitat affinities. Our results indicate that ecological connectivity favoring cross-Andes dispersal at the present is higher in low-lying passes across the Andes of southern Ecuador and northern Peru than in passes in Colombia, and this spatial pattern appears to have been consistent at four different moments over the past 130,000 years. We also found that although some areas may be presently unsuitable for the dispersal of birds across the Andes, under past climatic conditions (i.e. during cooler and drier periods) they were substantially more likely to allow for ecological connectivity of populations across the cordillera. No consistent differences were found in ecological connectivity across the Andes in the present nor in the past for species occupying different habitat types. We suggest that valleys in the Andes are major drivers of evolutionary diversification not only by isolating populations of montane species, but also by allowing episodic dispersal of lowland species. Our models allow us to make predictions about gene flow which may be assessed in future studies examining fine-grain patterns of genetic exchange with landscape genetics tools. © 2016. Acad. Colomb. Cienc. Ex. Fis. Nat. All rights reserved.References
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